Why scenario planning is crucial for any NHS workforce plan  

Introduction

The need for robust workforce planning has never been more critical. The NHS faces unprecedented challenges, from technological advancements to demographic shifts and ever-increasing demand for services. They also face continuing challenges with retention and recruitment, reward and recognition. The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan seeks to increase both the number and proportion of registered NHS staff working in primary and community services, with a focus on training, retaining and reforming.  

Those responsible for workforce planning must anticipate these challenges and strategically prepare for them. One powerful tool to aid in this preparation is scenario planning — a strategic approach that enables leaders to forecast potential futures and develop agile, resilient workforce strategies. Effective workforce planning ensures appropriate levels of staff are available to deliver safe, high-quality care to patients and service users. 

This blog will delve into what scenario planning entails, its importance in the NHS, and how it can significantly enhance workforce development. You’ll understand why scenario planning is not just a useful exercise but an essential component of strategic workforce planning, and why engaging with experts, such as those at Skills for Health, can provide the support you need to navigate this complex landscape. 

What is scenario planning? 

Put simply, scenario planning is a strategic method used to make flexible long-term plans. Unlike traditional forecasting methods that often rely on linear projections of current trends, scenario planning involves creating detailed and plausible narratives about different ways the future might unfold. These narratives, or scenarios, are not predictions but rather explorations of possible futures, taking into account various uncertainties and driving forces that could impact the workforce. 

In the context of workforce development, scenario planning involves identifying key variables that could influence the NHS workforce — such as changes in healthcare policy, technological advancements, patient demands, and economic factors — and constructing different scenarios based on these variables. Each scenario presents a different set of challenges and opportunities, allowing leaders to explore how the workforce might need to adapt under varying conditions. 

Why scenario planning is crucial for the NHS 

The NHS is facing a multitude of challenges, many of which are complex and unpredictable. Scenario planning is essential for several reasons. 

1) Preparing for uncertainty 

The healthcare environment is highly dynamic, with factors such as staff shortages, aging populations (both patient populations and the workforce itself), policy changes, budget constraints, and technological innovations all of which introduce uncertainty. Scenario planning enables NHS leaders to anticipate various possible futures and prepare for them, rather than being caught off guard. You can use previous events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as examples of how critical it is to forecast and prepare for even the most unlikely of scenarios, such as a global pandemic. Many of the ambitions for the NHS in 2024/25 reflect the reality of the multi-year process of recovering from the impact of the pandemic and improving services for patients.  

2) Identifying risks and opportunities 

By exploring different scenarios, leaders can identify potential risks to the workforce. At the same time, they can uncover opportunities, such as the potential for new roles or the need for upskilling in certain areas. 

3) Enhancing resilience 

Perhaps most importantly, scenario planning builds resilience into workforce planning. By preparing for multiple possible futures, the NHS can respond more effectively to whatever challenges arise, ensuring that the workforce remains capable and adaptable.

How scenario planning enhances workforce development 

Scenario planning offers substantial benefits that can greatly enhance workforce development. By providing a structured approach to decision-making, it enables leaders to make informed choices about workforce strategies that balance immediate needs with long-term objectives.  

Instead of reacting to challenges as they arise, scenario planning allows organisations to proactively anticipate various futures and develop strategies that are resilient and adaptable. 

One of the key advantages of scenario planning is its ability to clarify resource allocation. With a deeper understanding of potential future scenarios, the NHS can direct resources more effectively to where they are likely to be needed most. For instance, if a scenario indicates an increased demand for mental health services, this insight can guide the NHS in prioritising training and recruitment efforts to ensure an adequate supply of skilled professionals in that area. 

Additionally, scenario planning fosters greater collaboration across departments and stakeholders. This process encourages a shared understanding of the potential challenges and opportunities the NHS might face, leading to more cohesive and integrated workforce planning efforts. It also promotes continuous learning and adaptation, as scenarios are not static.  

As new information emerges and circumstances evolve, scenarios can be revisited and updated, ensuring that workforce plans remain relevant, responsive, and aligned with the overall goals of the organisation. This continuous feedback loop makes scenario planning an indispensable tool in building a workforce that is not only ready for the future but capable of thriving in it. 

Why work with experts in scenario planning 

While the concept of scenario planning may seem straightforward, executing it effectively requires expertise and experience. This is where partnering with an organisation like Skills for Health can make a significant difference. With years of experience in workforce planning within the NHS, Skills for Health brings a deep understanding of the unique challenges faced by healthcare leaders. 

Our approach to scenario planning is tailored to the specific needs of the NHS. We work closely with your organisation to identify key drivers of change, develop realistic and relevant scenarios, and integrate these into a comprehensive workforce strategy. By leveraging our expertise, you can ensure that your workforce planning is not only robust but also aligned with the future direction of healthcare. 

In a world of uncertainty, scenario planning is not just a strategic advantage, it is a necessity. For NHS leaders responsible for workforce planning, it offers a powerful tool to anticipate challenges, seize opportunities, and ensure that the workforce is equipped to meet the demands of the future. However, effective scenario planning requires more than just an understanding of the concept; it requires experience, insight, and a deep understanding of the healthcare environment. 

To learn more about how scenario planning can transform your workforce development efforts, and how Skills for Health can support you in this journey, book a free consultation with us today.